From the Blog

Renewable Electricity to Change Hydrogen-Supply Landscape

As renewable electricity penetrates the grid, and electricity buying-selling tools evolve, near-zero variable cost electricity will change the hydrogen-supply landscape. Historically, in the US and most other economies, fossil-fueled power plants have been the major electricity generators, and the selling price of electricity has been directly related to the cost of the underlying fuels used to generate that energy.  Whether coal, oil or natural gas, changes in the price of the underlying fuels has determined the level and direction of electricity pricing.   As recently as twenty years ago, it looked to most observers that fuel prices and resultant electricity prices would rise forever. What a difference two decades has made!
  • As new renewables (primarily wind and solar) increase as a share of the electric supply market, the cost of electricity is becoming increasing decoupled from the cost of fossil fuels
  • As renewable electricity sources grow, they are depressing the demand for fossil fuels, relieving demand-driven fuel price inflation
  • As renewable energy sources grow as a contributor to the entire electricity market, the market is increasingly dominated by predictable costs – primarily the fixed and semi-fixed costs of construction, ownership and operation of wind and solar assets. Electricity costs are becoming predictable and steady.
  The norm for the past 50 years in the US and most other electric grids has been that the last increment of electricity generated has been the highest-cost.  This effect has been driven by the generation dispatch rules of the grid operators – dispatch least expensive plants first, then dispatch additional plants in order of increasing generation cost until the available supply of electricity meets the instantaneous demand. But what about a world where near-zero variable cost renewable electricity is available, and supply is often higher than demand? If demand and supply are allowed to set pricing, frequent supply-exceeding demand instances will create a situation where the last increment of electricity generated often would get the lowest price instead of the highest price. The supply of delivered hydrogen for chemical uses, fabrication thermal processing (annealing, brazing, sintering etc), semiconductors, and other applications has historically been highly dependent on fossil fuels, either for generation or delivery, or both.  In the US, the market for hydrogen has been overwhelmingly served by hydrogen made from natural gas.  Hence the price of hydrogen has been high and volatile based on the cost of the underlying fossil energy sources. As renewable electricity begins to dominate the grid, near-zero variable cost electricity, used in on-site hydrogen generation equipment, will enable the as-required, where-required production of hydrogen using the lowest-cost, last increment of available electricity.  As an alternative to electricity, hydrogen, once produced, can be stored either as a gas, as a liquid, or as contained reactant in a variety of chemical products such as ammonia, bio-gas (natural gas substitute), and renewable-based bio-polymers. Hydrogen fuel can also be produced and provided to power fleets of vehicles with zero carbon emissions – enabling abundant “distributed storage” – perhaps at lower cost than gasoline today. Changes in the electricity supply and selling/buying landscape can create fantastic new opportunities for environmentally attractive, economically compelling hydrogen applications.  Current and potential users of hydrogen will benefit from low and predictable electricity costs which enable a burgeoning hydrogen economy. Hear more from Dave during his education session “On-Site Generated Hydrogen May Offer Lower Costs and Green Benefits for Annealing“.   Sign up to attend FABTECH today!

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